Metro infrastructure crisis reshapes South Africa's election landscape as voters abandon r

South Africa’s eight largest metros are heading into local elections carrying auditor-general findings of systemic infrastructure failure, massive service delivery backlogs, and financial instability, and the polling data now suggests those operational realities are reshaping the vote in ways that go well beyond a simple transfer of allegiance from one party to another.

Ipsos, releasing projections on 4 September, put ANC support at 31%, down sharply from the 45.6% the party secured in 2021. A separate survey by The Common Sense and the Social Research Foundation, conducted between 8 July and 31 July and released on 9 September, showed voters dispersing across the ANC at 36%, the Umkhonto weSizwe party at 24%, the DA at 13%, the EFF at 12%, and smaller parties at 15%. Adjusted for likely voter turnout, the same survey placed the ANC at 34%, the DA at 27%, MK at 15%, and the EFF at 7%, with a margin of error of 2.1%. No single rival is absorbing the ANC’s losses in decisive numbers.

Additional reference context is available at https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-09-13-voters-splinter-among-parties-as-support-for-the-anc-plunges/.

Dr Ongama Mtimka, a lecturer in history and political studies at Nelson Mandela University, has a name for what is happening. “The trend that we are seeing in South Africa is what I’ve called dynamic fragmentation. We are seeing a reduction in the dominance of the ANC as a party without a corresponding rise of a rival party that has got any meaningful challenge to the ANC. So, the DA is rising steadily, but remains constrained when it comes to a decisive shift of electoral preferences,” he told Daily Maverick.

The infrastructure numbers behind that fragmentation are stark. In Johannesburg, the country’s economic powerhouse, the city faces a qualified audit outcome, R2.82-billion in water losses representing 44.8% of supply, R5.67-billion in electricity losses at 30%, and a housing backlog exceeding 431,000 units. Infrastructure maintenance spending reached only 0.3% of property, plant and equipment value. The ANC is predicted to lead at 31%, down from 36% in 2021, with the DA trailing closely at 28%.

Buffalo City presents the tightest three-way contest: the DA at 33%, the ANC at 29%, and the EFF at 27%. The ANC’s collapse is particularly stark there, having won 59.43% in 2021. The auditor-general found the metro recorded a deficit of R996.01-million for 2024/25, water losses of R187.49-million driven by meter tampering and ageing pipes, and electricity losses of R831.43-million, with 90% of the operational budget consumed by network replacement and repair necessitated by illegal connections.

Cape Town, long the DA’s stronghold, shows signs of erosion. The DA is predicted to retain the strongest support at 46%, but that represents a sharp fall from 58.26% in 2021. The city’s first unqualified audit with findings since 2020/21 marked a regression for a party that campaigned on clean governance. Water losses reached R112.03-million (5.9%) and electricity losses totaled R771.97-million (11.2%), while the housing backlog exceeds 400,000 units.

Meanwhile, in Tshwane, the DA is predicted to lead at 31% against the ANC’s 22%, with ActionSA at 11% and the EFF at 9%. The city recorded R1.70-billion in water losses (39% of supply) and R3.27-billion in electricity losses (21%), alongside a housing backlog surpassing 508,685 units.

eThekwini stands as the sole metro where one party is predicted to win an outright majority. MK, contesting its first local government election, is projected by Ipsos to capture 55%, though the Social Research Foundation projects a lower 33%. The ANC, which previously led with 42.14%, is predicted to collapse to either 10% (Ipsos) or 18% (SRF). The city received an unqualified audit but lost more than half its water supply, recording R2.91-billion in losses (58.7%), and disclosed R1.91-billion in electricity losses (11.2%). The housing backlog exceeds 474,000 units.

Ekurhuleni shows the ANC and DA in close competition, at 24% and 21% respectively, with MK predicted at 18% and ActionSA at 13%. The auditor-general gave the city a qualified audit and concluded there is doubt it will continue operating. It recorded a deficit of R656.52-million, R3.07-billion in electricity losses (15.5%), and R1.27-billion in water losses (25.4%).

Mangaung, a traditional ANC stronghold, is predicted to see a neck-and-neck race between the DA at 36% and the ANC at 32%, a significant decline from 50.63% in 2021. The auditor-general found Mangaung the worst-performing metro and technically insolvent, despite an unqualified audit. It lost 48% of its water supply, costing R495.55-million, and spent only 2.1% of property, plant and equipment value on infrastructure maintenance.

Nelson Mandela Bay is predicted to see a tie between the ANC and DA, each at 37%. The metro recorded a deficit of R150.04-million, lost more than half its water (R392.56-million, or 52.7%), and recorded R1.48-billion in electricity losses (26.8%). The housing backlog exceeds 100,000 units.

The ANC’s campaign has stumbled from the outset. The party became locked in dispute with the Electoral Commission after blaming its failure to submit candidates on time in key Eastern Cape municipalities on an alleged technical glitch. The IEC disputed that any technical problem existed on its end and refused to reopen its portal for affected candidates. The party has yet to finalize candidates for key metros, publishing only a list of 42 candidates across all eight metros.

The polling data’s reliability has drawn scrutiny. Joel Netshitenzhe, executive director of the Mapungubwe Institute, argued in a Daily Maverick opinion piece that poll interpretation can be influenced by researcher bias and may unduly influence voter sentiment. He noted that The Common Sense and SRF have staffers with close political relationships to the DA. “Opinion polls can act as both cause and effect of voter sentiment. The pollsters purport merely to reflect preferences of the electorate. But polls can also inspire or demoralise an election campaign; and their interpretations can be weaponised to sway public opinion,” he wrote.

Voter engagement itself remains uncertain. In the Ipsos poll, only one-third of respondents expressed strong interest in elections and politics, 34% said they were not very interested, and the remainder were lukewarm. The SRF warned that raw data based on respondents’ answers would differ significantly once actual voter turnout was factored in.

Mtimka’s warning about what comes next is worth sitting with. “A much higher probability that there would be a scramble for several more municipalities as they shift from dominant party systems to hung councils” could reshape local governance across the country, he cautioned. Whether the metros that are already struggling to maintain water networks and balance their books can absorb the instability of hung councils is the question that will outlast election night.