ANC Support Faces First Major Test as New Polls Arrive Amid Ramaphosa Scandal

South Africa’s political numbers have held remarkably steady since the May 2024 election, but that could change as early as the middle of next week. The Common Sense is set to release fresh national polling data, and the figures will be scrutinized for signs that the Phala Phala corruption scandal and ongoing investigations into President Cyril Ramaphosa have begun to cut into ANC support.

The baseline is well established. The ANC secured 40% of the vote in May 2024, the Democratic Alliance took 22%, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party captured 15%, and the Economic Freedom Fighters won 11%. Fourteen months of subsequent polling have shown those numbers holding with little dramatic movement.

Beneath that surface calm, however, there have been real fluctuations. The ANC’s support dipped to just over 30% in early 2025, a decline directly tied to the VAT hike dispute that preceded that year’s budget. The ANC had pushed for tax increases while the DA opposed them fiercely. Once the ANC backed down, its support rebounded toward the 40% mark, where it has since stabilized. The DA, by contrast, has polled several percentage points above its May 2024 result throughout this period, a pattern that carries a historical caveat: between elections, DA support tends to rise modestly, then fall back in the weeks before voting as opposition campaigns intensify.

The upcoming release will go beyond national figures. When The Common Sense last measured Johannesburg’s political race at the end of the first quarter of this year, the ANC stood at 30% and the DA reached 39%. New data for that city will be included, along with figures for other major urban centres, including Tshwane, where the organization suspects the DA may be approaching a majority position.

The ANC’s internal leadership contest will receive close attention. In the first quarter, 47% of ANC voters said they would back Patrice Motsepe to succeed Ramaphosa, a figure higher than the combined support for all his major rivals. Updated numbers covering the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 will show whether that lead has held.

Frans Cronje, speaking to The Common Sense, put the Motsepe question in unambiguous terms. “The Motsepe question is really the most important political decision the ANC has come to stand before in 30 years. If it picks him as the next party leader, it has a prospect to reverse its current decline should he make the firm decisions on infrastructure, energy, empowerment, and foreign policy needed to take the brakes off investment. If he does, then we still see the ANC getting back to 50% of the vote in 2029 or 2034. If the party does not pick him, or if it does and our read on him proves wrong, then there is little prospect of the party arresting its descent, let alone restoring its majority.”

Those stakes are registering inside ANC circles. Last week, veteran ANC leader Mathews Phosa suggested his party could see its vote share fall to around 25% in future elections, a projection that aligns with what polling indicates the party may be moving toward by the end of the decade if it fails to pursue decisive reform after Ramaphosa’s expected departure in late 2027.

The new data, available in full at https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/editorials/what-will-new-poll-data-be-released-common-sense-next-week, will offer the clearest read yet on whether the post-May 2024 equilibrium is holding or whether the fractures are finally beginning to show.